Computational Aspects of Value at Risk

Student: Neal Hegeman

Company: ABN Amro N.V.

ABN Amro supervisor: Dr. Mark de Vries

Utrecht University supervisor: Dr. Rob Bisseling

Period: april - october 1999

Project Description

The ABN Amro bank uses a risk management system that, among other things, calculates Value-at-Risk (VaR). In short, VaR is the largest loss that is expected to occur on an investment portfolio with x% probability, if the portfolio remains unmodified for y days. Usually, the parameters x and y are chosen such that x=99% and y=1 day. The VaR is used internally by the bank to assess and control risk and is used externally by the European Central Bank to determine the amount of money that ABN Amro needs to set apart for possible losses on its trading portfolios.

The VaR is a statistical measure and is calculated with a simulation. This can either be a Monte Carlo simulation, which generates an artificial distribution, or a historical simulation, which uses historical data to generate a distribution. The calculation is lengthy because there is a lot of pricing of financial derivatives involved, which are expensive calculations. Another problem is the data-access; this can become the bottleneck for certain situations. Because this is such a lengthy calculation, it is done in parallel on a multi-processor environment.

Essentially, there are two different VaR calculations: a complete VaR calculation for the entire portfolio of the bank, and an incremental calculation, which tracks the development of the VaR during the day. These two different types of calculation require a different load balance.

The task in this internship is researching the structure and execution of the two types of calculation. Based on that research, an attempt will be made to improve the calculation structure and the load-balance, in order to make the calculation more efficient and faster.

Links

Some hyperlinks to relevant internet sites can be found here:
ABN Amro Nederland (in Dutch), also provides information on internships
Value-at-Risk Recources, a comprehensive list of Value-at-Risk Recources

Contact Information

For more information, contact Neal Hegeman at cjhegeman@hotmail.com